Published: October 26th, 2026 • Last Updated: October 26th, 2026
Author: Ross Taylor on AskRoss.ca

Why Your Home May Be Worth Less, and Why Buyers Have a Real Opening Right Now

Remember the housing market in 2021? Rates were near rock bottom, and it felt like everyone you knew was trying to buy a home.

Bidding wars were the norm. Homebuyers waived home inspections and financing conditions just to stay in the running. Homes were selling for well over asking.

If you were buying back then, you probably remember the stress. Losing house after house. Stretching your budget a little further each time. Wondering if you’d ever get in.

And if you did get in, it felt like a win. You finally had a home, and prices kept climbing.

Well, five years later, things look very different.

According to CREA, the average Canadian home sold for $668,219 in August 2026, almost exactly what it sold for in 2021.

But as Rob McLister pointed out in his October 7th analysis, while home prices stood still, just about everything else got more expensive.

Consumer prices have increased by approximately 19.1% since 2021. Adjusting for inflation, that means the average Canadian home has actually lost about 16.2% of its value. That’s more than $100,000 in purchasing power gone.

If you bought near the peak, I know that’s hard to read.

But if you’re buying now, it may be the best news this market has given you in years.

And with the major forecasts calling for another flat year for Canadian home prices in 2027, that opening may not close any time soon.

Jump to a specific section in this article ↓↓

• Have Canadian home prices really gone nowhere in five years?
• How far have home prices fallen since the 2022 peak?
• Why is 2026 a better market for home buyers?
• What will Canadian home prices do in 2027?
• Are condos a good buy after the price correction?
• What do falling home prices mean for homeowners?
• Is a home still a good investment if prices are flat?
• Should you wait for home prices to bottom out?
• Advice from Ross Taylor Mortgages: Buying in a Softer Housing Market
• List of all FAQs: Canadian home prices in 2026 and 2027

Have Canadian home prices really gone nowhere in five years?

In dollars, almost. In what your home can actually buy, not even close.

Here’s why that matters to you: the value of your home stood still while the cost of everything around it went up.

What does inflation do to the value of your home?

• Your groceries, gas and bills cost more. What cost you $100 in 2021 costs about $119 today, according to Statistics Canada’s Consumer Price Index. For a typical household, that’s thousands of extra dollars a year going to groceries, gas and bills.

• Your home’s price didn’t keep up. That’s why McLister says the average home has lost about 16% of its value after inflation.
• Your city may look different. CREA itself cautions that its average doesn’t reflect actual prices in markets made up of very different neighbourhoods. Your street, your city and your type of home can look nothing like the national figure.

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How far have home prices fallen since the 2022 peak?

Remember early 2022? At the peak of pandemic boom, there were relentless bidding wars, offers with no conditions, people paying $100,000 over asking just to win.

That was the top and prices have been sliding ever since, and further than most people realize.

How much value has the pandemic boom given back?

Prices are about 19% below the peak

• McLister puts the average Canadian home about 19% below its February 2022 peak. On a home that sold for $800,000 at the top, that’s roughly $154,000 gone.

After inflation, the drop is closer to 30%

• Today’s average home has about the same buying power as one in early 2020, before the boom even started, by McLister’s math.

Toronto took one of the hardest hits

• The average GTA home fell about $325,000, from roughly $1.33 million in February 2022 to about $1.01 million in February 2026, according to TRREB data.

Full credit to Rob McLister for the national analysis behind these numbers, published in Mortgage Logic News on October 7th, 2026.

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Why is 2026 a better market for home buyers?

Bidding wars have cooled, financing conditions are back, and in many markets there’s room to negotiate below asking.

Buying a home feels normal again, and after the pandemic years, normal feels like a gift.

What has changed for buyers since the pandemic frenzy?

The market is balanced

• For every 100 homes listed in August, about 49 sold, according to CREA. You have choices, and sellers can’t simply name their price.

More local markets now favour buyers

• REMAX expects about one in three local markets to lean firmly toward buyers this fall, reported by MPA. The Greater Toronto Area is one of them, and I dug into whether 2026 is a good time to buy a home in Toronto earlier this year.

Conditions of financing are back

• We’re working with a number of buyers right now who are writing offers conditional on financing, just like the good old days.
• That gives you time to arrange your mortgage properly, do your due diligence and think before committing hundreds of thousands of dollars.

There’s room to negotiate

• You can make an offer below asking price. On a $750,000 home, 3% off the asking price is $22,500 you wouldn’t have to borrow.

Underpricing to spark a bidding war backfires more often now.

• Some sellers still list artificially low to attract multiple offers, and with the right property in the right neighbourhood it can work.
• These days I see it fail more often than it succeeds, because buyers won’t chase a price somebody set as bait.

Your income may stretch further

• Many Canadians earn more than they did in 2021, while prices barely moved. That can mean a bigger approval than you’d have had at the peak.

Curious what you’d qualify for? Start with our affordability calculator, or book a call and we’ll run your numbers together.

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What will Canadian home prices do in 2027?

The major forecasters agree on one thing: 2027 looks like a flat year, not a rebound.

For buyers, that means the choice and negotiating room you have today may stick around for a while.

What are the 2027 housing forecasts saying?

• CREA expects the average home to rise about $8,200 over all of 2027, to about $690,000, in its October forecast. That’s barely a ripple.
• Sales should pick up a little. CREA forecasts about 464,000 home sales in 2027, roughly 20,000 more than this year, as pent-up demand comes back. More buyers means a bit more competition, but nothing like the bidding wars of 2021.

• TD expects less than 2% growth, which is under $10,000 on a $500,000 home, and below 1% in Ontario and B.C.
• National Bank and CMHC agree: prices steady, then grow only modestly. National Bank’s Stéfane Marion expects prices to stabilize heading into 2027, and CMHC’s summer outlook expects Ontario and B.C. to be weakest.

Will higher interest rates change the 2027 outlook?

• Rates are the real wild card. Markets are pricing in about one full percentage point of Bank of Canada hikes by this time next year, according to CREA.
• Some economists think the worst is close to done. Marion told a mortgage conference this month that he doesn’t expect mortgage rates to climb another full percentage point. TD’s baseline has the Bank of Canada on hold through 2027.

• Here’s what that costs you.

My read? 2027 probably isn’t the year prices take off, and it probably isn’t the year they collapse either.

For a buyer with a long-term plan, a steady, boring market is exactly what you want.

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Are condos a good buy after the price correction?

Ah yes, condos. Everyone’s favourite punching bag.

But for a lot of first-time buyers, a good condo is still the most realistic way into owning a home.

How do you find a good condo in a falling market?

• Prices are way down. The average GTA condo fell from nearly $800,000 in February 2022 to just over $625,000 in February 2026, roughly $175,000 off, according to TRREB data.
• I weighed whether to buy a Toronto condo now or wait while this correction was deepening.
• Check the building before the unit. Look at the fees and the condo corporation’s reserve fund. A cheap unit facing a big special assessment isn’t cheap.
• Watch for awkward layouts. Some newer condos give up a lot of their square footage to hallways and odd angles. Pay for space you can actually live in.

• Don’t overpay for amenities you’ll never use. You pay for the pool, the party room and the rooftop lounge twice: once in the purchase price and again every month in your condo fees.

Are investors buying Toronto-area condos again?

• Yes, at deep discounts. Investors are buying units in bulk at about 40% below what they first sold for, so a unit that first sold for $600,000 goes for roughly $360,000, according to a survey reported by MPA.
• Unsold inventory has started to shrink. About 5,100 finished units were still unsold, down 7% from the second quarter and the first drop in four years. That’s still 40% more than a year ago, so buyers have plenty of choice for now.

• And almost nothing new is being built. New construction is running at less than a fifth of the 10-year average. Today’s wide choice won’t last forever.

I wouldn’t write off condos for good because they’ve had a rough few years. Investors tend to move before everyone else, so their return is worth watching.

We may be getting closer to the bottom of this condo correction, and with so little new supply coming, today’s wide choice won’t last forever.

If you plan on buying a condo as your first home, our team can show you what you’d qualify for and what to budget for fees.

If you owned a home years ago and are ready to buy again, check whether you can be a first-time home buyer twice in Ontario before you count on any rebates.

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What do falling home prices mean for homeowners?

If a house on your street just sold for less than you paid, it’s natural to feel like you’re losing money. But a lower value on your home only bites if you have to sell or refinance soon.

What it means for you as a homeowner depends on two things: when you bought, and how much you put down.

How much equity do you really have?

A small down payment cuts both ways

• Let’s say you bought at roughly $1.01 million, about what the average GTA home sold for in February 2026. You put 10% down, so $101,000.

• If the home drops 10% to about $909,000, that $101,000 of equity is gone on paper.

Every payment still builds ownership

• Principal paydown works quietly in the background. Every regular principal-and-interest payment chips away at what you owe, so your ownership stake grows month after month. Even in a flat market, you’re building equity.

Peak buyers may have less room than they think

• Lenders usually let you borrow up to 80% of your home’s value, according to the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada.
• So weigh whether to renew or refinance your mortgage well before your term ends.

Long-term owners are in much better shape

• If you bought before the boom, time has done the heavy lifting. The average home is still about 10% ahead of inflation over the past ten years.

If you bought near the peak and need to free up cash, talk to us before you assume the door is closed, because a refinance is one of your only options.

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Is a home still a good investment if prices are flat?

If you bought in the last few years, you’ve probably looked up your home’s value and felt a little deflated.

I get it, but I don’t judge a home the way I’d judge a stock. A home was never only an investment, and the price chart leaves out most of what you get from owning one.

What do you get from owning that a price chart misses?

• Shelter and stability. Nobody can end your lease or raise your rent. That security is worth something every single month.
• A path to owning it outright. Each payment builds ownership, and one day the mortgage is gone. That’s a big drop in your cost of living just when you may need it most.
• Tax-free gains on your principal residence. If the home was your principal residence for every year you owned it, you don’t pay tax on the gain when you sell. You do still have to report the sale on your tax return.
• Buy the right home, not the right moment. Even the professional forecasters keep revising their numbers. What you control is the property, the price and how the mortgage is structured from day one.

That’s why I remain a strong believer in homeownership for people who are financially ready. Readiness matters far more than timing.

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Should you wait for home prices to bottom out?

History says housing cycles can run a very long time, and nobody rings a bell at the bottom. But trying to time the bottom perfectly is how many buyers miss their best opportunity.

What does history tell you about timing the market?

• The forecasts point to a floor, not a freefall. CREA, TD and National Bank all expect prices to steady in 2027.
• Waiting can cost you more than it saves. A $10,000 lower price can be wiped out by a higher rate, like the $285 a month shown above.
• Today’s slowdown could become tomorrow’s shortage. CMHC’s chief economist warned this month that construction is slowing faster than the need for housing.
• Buy when the home and the payment both fit. That’s a plan. Betting on next year’s prices is not.

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Advice from Ross Taylor Mortgages: Buying in a Softer Housing Market

I think there’s a real opportunity for Canadian homebuyers in today’s market, but that doesn’t mean you should rush out and buy something just because prices have come down.

Buy a home that suits your needs, negotiate hard, and make sure your mortgage payments are comfortable, even if rates go up. If you’re ready but don’t know where to start, we’re here to help.

And if you’re already a homeowner, don’t get too caught up in what your property might be worth today. If you’re happy where you are and can comfortably manage your mortgage, there’s no reason to lose sleep over a slower housing market.

What should you do before you buy or borrow in 2026 or 2027?

• Get pre-approved before you shop. It shows what you can afford and can hold a rate while you look. With rates this jumpy, that hold could be worth real money, which is why I think a mortgage pre-approval is worth it in any market.

• Make sure the payment works at renewal, too. Test it against a higher rate, not just today’s.
• Check your real equity before you plan around it. If you’re thinking about a refinance, a home equity line or a move, get a realistic value based on today’s sales, not on what the house down the street sold for in 2022.
• Get good advice in a slow market, too. Mortgage advice matters just as much in a slower market as in a hot one. Sometimes more.

Thinking about buying, or wondering where your equity stands? Reach out to us, and our team will map out what today’s market means for you.

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List of all FAQs: Canadian home prices in 2026 and 2027

Have Canadian home prices really gone nowhere in five years?

• In dollars, almost. CREA’s national average was $668,219 in August 2026, about where it was in August 2021.
• After inflation, the average home has lost about 16.2% of its value, according to Rob McLister, because consumer prices rose about 19.1% over the same five years.

How far have home prices fallen since the 2022 peak?

• About 19.2% in dollars and roughly 30.1% after inflation, by McLister’s calculation, measured from the February 2022 peak.
• That puts today’s average home at about the same purchasing power as early 2020.

Why is 2026 a better market for home buyers?

• Less competition, more choice and room to negotiate. CREA’s August data put the national market in balanced territory, and conditions of financing are back.
• Higher incomes against flat prices can also mean a stronger mortgage approval than in 2021.

What will Canadian home prices do in 2027?

• Most forecasts call for a flat year. CREA expects the national average to rise 1.2% to $689,909 in 2027, and TD Economics expects growth below 2%.
• Ontario and B.C. are expected to be the weakest, according to CMHC and TD, while National Bank expects prices to stabilize heading into 2027.

Will higher interest rates hurt home buyers in 2027?

• They could. CREA says markets are pricing in about one percentage point of Bank of Canada hikes by this time next year, though its own forecast assumes far less.
• A one-point rise adds roughly $285 a month to a $500,000 mortgage with a 25-year amortization, which is why a rate hold matters.

Are condos a good buy after the price correction?

• They can be, if you’re selective. The average GTA condo price fell from nearly $800,000 in February 2022 to just over $625,000 in February 2026, according to TRREB data.
• Check the building’s finances, the fees and the layout before you fall for the price.

What do falling real home prices mean for homeowners?

• It depends on when you bought and how much you put down. Recent buyers with small down payments may have much less equity than they expect.
• Lenders usually cap borrowing at 80% of your home’s value, which can limit refinancing, debt consolidation and home equity lines of credit.

Should you wait for home prices to bottom out?

• Not if the home fits and the payment is comfortable. Nobody can call the bottom, and the major forecasters expect prices to steady in 2027 rather than keep falling.
• Rates can move against you while you wait, and CREA says fixed mortgage rates have already jumped higher this fall.

How much can I borrow against my home in Canada?

• Usually up to 80% of your home’s value in total, including your existing mortgage, according to the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada.
• A home equity line of credit is capped at 65% of your home’s value.

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